Vuba aha, igipimo cy’amadolari y’Amerika cyakomeje kuzamuka, ariko isoko ridafite ferro ntiryagabanutse cyane, kandi inzira yo gutandukanya ibintu iragaragara.Kuva ihagarikwa ry’ubucuruzi ku gicamunsi cyo ku ya 24 Kanama, imigendekere ya Aluminium ya Shanghai na Shanghai Nickel mu mirenge idafite ferro yari itandukanye.Muri byo, ejo hazaza ha aluminium ya aluminium yakomeje kuzamuka, ifunga 2,66%, ishyiraho ukwezi kumwe nigice hejuru;Shanghai nikel ejo hazaza yacitse intege inzira zose, ifunga 2.03% kumunsi.
Birakwiye ko tumenya ko ubuyobozi bwa macro buheruka kubutare butari ferrous bugarukira.Nubwo abayobozi ba Federasiyo baherutse kugira imyifatire idahwitse kandi igipimo cy’amadolari y’Amerika cyakomeje gushimangira, ntabwo cyigeze gikurura cyane icyerekezo cy’amabuye y'agaciro adafite ferro, kandi ubwoko bw’ubwoko bujyanye na bwo bwagarutse ku shingiro.Wu Haode, ukuriye ishami rya Changjiang Futures ishami rya Guangzhou, yizera ko hari impamvu ebyiri nyamukuru:
Ubwa mbere, icyiciro kibanziriza igabanuka rikabije ry’ibiciro by’ibyuma bidafite ingufu byujuje ibyifuzo by’ubukungu bw’isi ku isi mu gihe izamuka ry’ibiciro bya Federasiyo.Kuva muri Nyakanga, imyifatire yo kuzamura inyungu za Federasiyo ya Federasiyo yagabanutse, kandi ifaranga ry’Amerika ryahindutse ho gato, kandi ibyo isoko ryateganyaga ko izamuka ry’inyungu ku gahato ryabaye rito.Nubwo igipimo cy’amadolari y’Amerika kikiri gikomeye, ibiteganijwe kuzamuka ku nyungu ntibishobora gutuma igipimo cy’amadolari y’Amerika gikomeza kwiyongera cyane.Kubera iyo mpamvu, ingaruka zo gushimangira mu gihe gito amadolari y’Amerika ku byuma bidafite ferro zaragabanutse ku buryo bugaragara, ni ukuvuga ko ibyuma bidafite fer “bigenda byangirika” ku madorari y’Amerika mu byiciro.
Icya kabiri, imbaraga zigenda ziyongera ku isoko ryicyuma kitagira fer kuva muri Kanama cyaturutse ahanini kumasoko yimbere mu gihugu.Ku ruhande rumwe, hamwe n'inkunga ya politiki y'imbere mu gihugu, ibiteganijwe ku isoko byateye imbere;ku rundi ruhande, ubushyuhe bwinshi ahantu henshi bukomeje gutuma habaho kubura amashanyarazi, bigatuma igabanuka ry'umusaruro rirangira, kandi bigatuma ibiciro by'ibyuma byongera kwiyongera.Kubwibyo, birashobora kugaragara ko disiki yimbere ikomeye kuruta disiki yo hanze, kandi itandukaniro riri hagati yimbaraga zimbere ninyuma yibiciro bya aluminiyumu biragaragara cyane.
Nk’uko byatangajwe na Hou Yahui, umusesenguzi mukuru wa Shenyin Wanguo Futures Nonferrous Metals, Kanama iracyari mu gihe gito cy’izamuka ry’inyungu za macro ya Federasiyo, kandi ingaruka ziterwa na macro zaragabanutse.Ibiciro byicyuma bidafite ferro biheruka kwerekana cyane cyane ubwoko bwubwoko ubwabwo.Kurugero, umuringa na zinc bifite ishingiro ryibanze biri muburyo bwo gukomeza kugaruka.Mugihe uruhande rutanga ruterwa namakuru yo kugabanya icyarimwe umusaruro mugihugu ndetse no mumahanga, aluminium iherutse gucika.Kubwoko butandukanye bufite intege nke, nka nikel, nyuma yo kwisubiraho mubyiciro byabanjirije iki, igitutu cyo hejuru kizagaragara cyane.
Kugeza ubu, isoko ryicyuma kitari ferrous ryinjiye mugihe cyo guhuriza hamwe, kandi ingaruka zifatizo zubwoko butandukanye zongeye kwiyongera.Kurugero, abakora umwirondoro wa zinc na aluminium mubushinwa bahuye nibibazo byingufu muburayi, kandi ibyago byo kugabanuka kwumusaruro byariyongereye, mugihe umusaruro wa aluminiyumu wo murugo nawo wagize ingaruka kumashanyarazi yaho.Ibyago byo kugabanya umusaruro byiyongereye.Byongeye kandi, ibyuma bitagira fer bikomeje kwibasirwa nububiko buke hamwe nubworoherane buke.Iyo imikoreshereze y’isi yose ikiri myinshi, ihungabana ry’ibicuruzwa ryoroshye gukurura abantu ku isoko. ”Uwashinze isesengura ryigihe giciriritse Yang Lina yavuze.
Icyakora, Yang Lina yibukije ko isoko rigomba kwitondera ko inama ngarukamwaka y’amabanki nkuru ku isi muri Jackson Hole, izwi ku izina rya “barometero” y’impinduka za politiki, izaba kuva ku ya 25 kugeza ku ya 27 Kanama, naho Perezida wa Federasiyo Powell akaba cyabaye kuwa gatanu 22 isaha ya Beijing.ingingo yo kuvuga ku bijyanye n'ubukungu.Muri icyo gihe, Powell azasobanura neza imikorere y’ifaranga n’ingamba za politiki y’ifaranga.Biteganijwe ko hashimangirwa ko ubukungu bw’Amerika n’isoko ry’umurimo bikomeje gukomera, kandi ko ifaranga ari ryinshi mu buryo butemewe, kandi politiki y’ifaranga iracyakeneye gukaza umurego kugira ngo isubize, kandi umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’inyungu uzakomeza.Yahinduwe kumibare yubukungu.Amakuru yatangajwe muri iyo nama azakomeza kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku isoko.Yavuze ko injyana y'ubucuruzi iriho ubu isimburana hagati yo gukaza umurego, kudindira, no gutegereza ubukungu.Iyo usubije amaso inyuma, ushobora gusanga imikorere yisoko ryicyuma kitari ferrous iracyari nziza cyane ugereranije nundi mutungo mubidukikije.
Urebye abatanga umwirondoro wa aluminium, abasesenguzi bemeza ko kwiyongera vuba aha mu gihugu ndetse no hanze y’imvururu zazanye inkunga igaragara mu gihe gito.Yang Lina yavuze ko kuri ubu, uruhande rutanga aluminiyumu mu gihugu rwibasiwe no kugabanuka k'ubushyuhe bwo hejuru, kandi umusaruro ukomeje kugabanuka.Mu Burayi, ubushobozi bwa aluminium nabwo bwongeye kugabanywa kubera ibibazo by’ingufu.Kuruhande rwibisabwa, amasosiyete atunganya nayo yibasiwe no kugabanya amashanyarazi kandi igipimo cyibikorwa cyaragabanutse.Hamwe nogukomeza igihe cyigihe cyo gukoresha no kwangirika kw ibidukikije byo hanze, uko gahunda yinganda zitunganya ibintu bigenda byoroha, kandi kugarura ibicuruzwa byakoreshejwe bizatwara igihe ningamba zo gukangura.Kubijyanye nububiko, ibarura rusange ryakusanyije umubare muto wibiciro bya aluminiyumu.
By'umwihariko, Hou Yahui yabwiye abanyamakuru ko usibye kugabanya umusaruro uterwa n’ibibazo by’ingufu, abakozi bo mu ruganda rwa Hydro's Sunndal aluminium muri Noruveje baherutse gutangira imyigaragambyo, kandi uruganda rwa aluminium ruzahagarika umusaruro ku kigero cya 20% mu byumweru bine byambere.Kugeza ubu, umusaruro wose w’uruganda rwa Sunndal Aluminium ni toni 390.000 / umwaka, kandi imyigaragambyo irimo toni 80.000 / umwaka.
Imbere mu gihugu, ku ya 22 Kanama, ibisabwa byo kugabanya amashanyarazi mu Ntara ya Sichuan byongeye kuvugururwa, kandi inganda zose za aluminium electrolytike zo muri iyo ntara zahagaritse umusaruro.Nk’uko imibare ibigaragaza, mu Ntara ya Sichuan hari toni zigera kuri miliyoni imwe y’amashanyarazi ya aluminium ya electrolytike, kandi ibigo bimwe na bimwe byatangiye kugabanya imitwaro no guha amashanyarazi abaturage kuva muri Nyakanga hagati.Nyuma ya Kanama, ikibazo cyo gutanga amashanyarazi cyarushijeho gukomera, kandi ingufu za aluminiyumu ya electrolytike mu karere yarahagaritswe.Chongqing, nayo iri mu majyepfo y'uburengerazuba, nayo iri mu bihe bikomeye byo gutanga amashanyarazi kubera ibihe by'ubushyuhe bwinshi.Byumvikane ko ibiti bibiri bya aluminium electrolytike byangijwe, birimo ubushobozi bwo gutanga toni zigera ku 30.000.Yavuze ko kubera ibintu byatanzwe haruguru, habaye impinduka mu buryo bworoshye bwa aluminium.Muri Kanama, umuvuduko ukabije kuruhande rwo gutanga aluminium ya electrolytike wahagaritswe by'agateganyo, ibyo bikaba byaragize uruhare runini kubiciro mugihe gito.
Ati: "Igihe kirekire imikorere ikomeye y’ibiciro bya aluminiyumu ishobora kumara ahanini biterwa n’igihe imyigaragambyo izabera mu nganda za aluminiyumu yo mu mahanga ndetse n’uko igipimo cyo kugabanya umusaruro bitewe n’ibibazo by’ingufu kizakomeza kwagurwa."Yang Lina yavuze ko igihe kirekire itangwa ugereranije n’ibisabwa rikomeje gukomera, ingaruka ku biciro bya aluminium zizaba.Ingaruka nini ku buringanire bwibisabwa nibisabwa.
Hou Yahui yavuze ko ikiruhuko cy’impeshyi kirangiye, biteganijwe ko ikirere cy’ubushyuhe bukabije mu karere k’amajyepfo y’iburengerazuba giteganijwe kurangira buhoro buhoro, ariko bizatwara igihe kugira ngo ikibazo cy’amashanyarazi kigabanuke, ndetse n’umusaruro w’amashanyarazi. aluminium igena ko gutangira selile ya electrolytike nabyo bizatwara igihe.Avuga ko nyuma yo gutanga amashanyarazi y’inganda za aluminium electrolytike mu Ntara ya Sichuan, biteganijwe ko umusaruro wose uzatangira nibura ukwezi.
Wu Haode yizera ko isoko rya aluminiyumu rigomba kwitondera ibintu bikurikira: Ku bijyanye no gutanga no gukenera, igabanuka ry’amashanyarazi muri Sichuan riganisha ku kugabanuka kwa toni miliyoni imwe y’umusaruro ndetse no gutinda kwa toni 70.000 z’ubushobozi bushya bwo gukora; .Niba ingaruka zo guhagarika kumara ukwezi, umusaruro wa aluminium ushobora kuba hejuru ya 7.5%.toni.Ku ruhande rw’ibisabwa, muri politiki nziza y’imbere mu gihugu, gutera inkunga inguzanyo n’ibindi, hari iterambere ryagabanutse ku biteganijwe ku bicuruzwa, kandi hamwe n’igihe cy’ibihe bya “Zahabu Nine Ifeza icumi”, hazabaho kwiyongera gukenewe. .Muri rusange, ibyingenzi byo gutanga aluminiyumu nibisabwa birashobora kuvugwa muri make nku: amafaranga yo kugabanuka aragabanuka, amafaranga asabwa ariyongera, kandi impuzandengo y'ibitangwa nibisabwa umwaka wose iratera imbere.
Ku bijyanye n’ibarura, ibarura rya LME rya aluminiyumu riri munsi ya toni 300.000, ibarura rya aluminiyumu ryambere ntiri munsi ya toni 200.000, inyemezabuguzi y’ububiko iri munsi ya toni 100.000, naho ibarura ry’imibereho ya electrolytike ya aluminium iri munsi ya toni 700.000.Ati: “Isoko ryahoraga rivuga ko 2022 ari umwaka aluminium ya electrolytike ishyirwa mu bikorwa, kandi rwose ni ko bimeze.Ariko, iyo turebye igabanuka ryubushobozi bwumusaruro wa aluminium umwaka utaha ndetse no mugihe kizaza, ubushobozi bwimikorere ya aluminium electrolytike ihora yegera 'igisenge', kandi ibyifuzo bikomeza kuba bihamye.Ku bijyanye n'iterambere, haba muri aluminiyumu haba hari ikibazo cy'ibarura, cyangwa niba isoko rishobora kuba ryatangiye gucuruza, ibi bikeneye kwitabwaho. ”Yavuze.
Muri rusange, Wu Haode yizera ko igiciro cya aluminiyumu kizaba cyiza muri “zahabu icyenda ya feza icumi”, naho uburebure bwo hejuru bukabona 19.500.000.000 / toni.Kubireba niba igiciro cya aluminiyumu kizazamuka cyane cyangwa kidakora mu gihe kiri imbere, dukwiye kwitondera iterambere ryinshi ry’imikoreshereze n’icyumba cyo guhungabanya amasoko.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nzeri-02-2022