Aluminium ni icyuma gikoresha ingufu nyinshi hamwe n’ibyuka bihumanya ikirere.Nyuma y’ubwumvikane buriho ku isi hose ku bijyanye no kugabanya karubone, kandi bitewe n’imbogamizi za politiki yo mu gihugu “karuboni ebyiri” na “ingufu zikoreshwa kabiri”, inganda za aluminium electrolytike zizahura n’impinduka nini cyane.Tuzakomeza gucukumbura cyane mu nganda za electrolytike ya aluminium, kuva muri politiki kugera mu nganda, kuva muri macro kugeza kuri micro, kuva ku isoko kugeza ku bisabwa, gushakisha impinduka zishobora kubaho muri buri murongo, no gusuzuma ingaruka zishobora kuba ku biciro bya aluminiyumu.
Ubushyuhe bwo hejuru buragabanuka, niba igiciro cya aluminium gihura n "kugabanya umuriro"
Ubushyuhe bwinshi muri Kanama bwibasiye isi, kandi uduce twinshi twa Aziya twahuye n’ikirere cy’ubushyuhe bukabije, kandi amashanyarazi yaho yari afite igitutu kinini.Muri byo, igiciro cy’amashanyarazi cyazamutse mu bice byinshi by’Uburayi, ibyo bikaba byaratumye undi musaruro ugabanuka mu nganda za aluminium ya electrolytike.Muri icyo gihe, akarere ko mu majyepfo y’iburengerazuba bw’igihugu nacyo cyibasiwe cyane n’ubushyuhe bwo hejuru, kandi igabanuka ryinshi ry’umusaruro ryabereye mu karere ka Sichuan.Kubangamira uruhande rutanga, igiciro cya aluminiyumu cyazamutse kiva kuri 17.000 Yuan / toni hagati muri Nyakanga kigera hejuru ya 19.000 / toni mu mpera za Kanama.Kugeza ubu, ikirere gishyushye cyatangiye kugabanuka kandi biteganijwe ko Federasiyo izamura inyungu ku buryo bukabije.Igiciro cya aluminiyumu gihura n "umuriro"?
Twizera ko imyumvire ya macro yigihe gito idahwitse, kandi izamuka ryikigereranyo cy’amadolari y’Amerika ryahagaritse ibicuruzwa, byashyizeho igitutu ku biciro bya aluminium.Ariko mu gihe giciriritse, ikibazo cy’ibura ry’ingufu mu Burayi kizabaho igihe kirekire, igipimo cyo kugabanya umusaruro wa aluminium electrolytike kizakomeza kwaguka, kandi ibicuruzwa byacyo byo hasi n’ibicuruzwa byanyuma bizaterwa cyane n’ibitumizwa mu mahanga.Hamwe n’ibiciro by’ingufu biri hasi mu Bushinwa, ibyoherezwa mu mahanga bya aluminiyumu bifite inyungu zihenze, bigatuma ibyoherezwa mu gihugu mu gihembwe cya gatatu n'icya kane bishoboka ko bizakomeza kugenda neza.Mugihe cyigihe kitari gito cyo murugo gakondo, gukoresha itumanaho byerekana kwihangana kugaragara, no kwegeranya ububiko hagati no mumasoko yo hepfo ni bike.Nyuma yubushyuhe bwo hejuru bumaze kugabanuka, ubwubatsi bwo hasi buteganijwe gusubukurwa vuba, gutwara ibarura rigabanuka.Gukomeza kunoza ibyingenzi bituma Shanghai Aluminium irushaho gukomera.Niba imyumvire ya macro itezimbere, izaba ifite imbaraga zo kwisubiraho.Nyuma yigihe cyiza cyo gukoresha "Zahabu Nine Ifeza Icumi", kugabanuka kwicyifuzo nigitutu gikomeye cyo gutanga, igiciro cya aluminiyumu kizongera guhura nigitutu kinini cyo gukosorwa.
Inkunga y'ibiciro iragaragara, igitutu cyo gukurura ni gito ugereranije no muri Kamena
Muri Kamena, Banki nkuru y’igihugu yatangaje ko izamura inyungu ku manota 75 shingiro.Nyuma yo gutangazwa, isoko ryatangiye gucuruza ibiteganijwe ko ubukungu bwifashe nabi, bituma igabanuka ryinshi ry’ibiciro bya aluminiyumu mu bihe bikomeza uyu mwaka.Igiciro cyamanutse kiva ku 21.000 / toni hagati muri Kamena kigera ku 17.000 hagati muri Nyakanga./ hafi.Ubwoba bwibisabwa bizaza, hamwe no guhangayikishwa no guca intege ishingiro ryimbere mu gihugu, byagize uruhare mu kugabanuka kwanyuma.
Nyuma y’icyumweru gishize amagambo y’ikirenga yavuzwe n’umuyobozi wa Banki nkuru y’igihugu, isoko ryongeye kugurisha ibyifuzo by’izamuka ry’inyungu 75, kandi ibiciro bya aluminiyumu byagabanutseho hafi 1.000 mu minsi itatu, byongera guhura n’igitutu kinini cyo gukosorwa.Twizera ko igitutu cyo gukosora kizaba gifite intege nke cyane ugereranije n’ukwezi kwa gatandatu: ku ruhande rumwe, inyungu y’inganda za aluminiyumu ya electrolytike muri Kamena yari hejuru ya 3.000 / toni, haba mu rwego rwo gukingira uruganda rwa aluminium ubwayo, cyangwa inganda zo hejuru murwego rwo kugabanya ibyifuzo.Urebye inyungu nyinshi zidashoboka, amasosiyete ya aluminium ahura ningaruka zo kugabanuka kwinyungu.Inyungu ninshi, niko kugabanuka kwinshi, kandi inyungu zinganda ziriho ubu zaragabanutse kugera kuri 400 yuan / toni, bityo rero harahari umwanya muto wo gukomeza guhamagarwa.Kurundi ruhande, ikiguzi cya aluminium electrolytike biragaragara ko gishyigikiwe.Ikigereranyo cya aluminiyumu ya electrolytike hagati muri Kamena cyari hafi 18.100 / toni, kandi ikiguzi cyari kikiri hafi 17.900 / toni mu mpera za Kanama, hamwe n’impinduka nto cyane.Kandi mugihe kirekire, harumwanya muto ugereranije na alumina, anode yabanje gutekwa hamwe nigiciro cyamashanyarazi kugabanuka, ibyo bigatuma igiciro cyumusaruro wa aluminium electrolytike kumwanya muremure umwanya munini, bigatuma habaho inkunga kubiciro bya aluminiyumu iriho ubu .
Ibiciro by'ingufu zo mu mahanga biri hejuru, kandi kugabanya umusaruro bizaguka kurushaho
Amafaranga yo mu mahanga akomeje kuba menshi, kandi kugabanya umusaruro bizakomeza kwaguka.Binyuze mu isesengura ry’ingufu z’amashanyarazi mu Burayi no muri Amerika, dushobora kubona ko ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu, gaze gasanzwe, amakara, ingufu za kirimbuzi n’andi masoko y’ingufu zifite uruhare runini.Bitandukanye na Amerika, Uburayi bushingira cyane ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga na gaze karemano ndetse n’amakara.Mu 2021, ikoreshwa rya gaze gasanzwe ry’iburayi rizaba rifite metero kibe miliyari 480, naho hafi 40% y’ibicuruzwa bya gaze biva mu Burusiya.Mu 2022, amakimbirane hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine yatumye ihagarikwa ry’itangwa rya gaze mu Burusiya, bituma ibiciro by’ibiciro bya gaze bikomeza kwiyongera mu Burayi, kandi Uburayi bwagombaga gushakisha ubundi buryo bw’ingufu z’Uburusiya ku isi, ibyo bikaba byaratumye mu buryo butaziguye; kuzamuka kw'ibiciro bya gaze ku isi.Ingaruka z’ibiciro by’ingufu, inganda ebyiri za aluminiyumu yo muri Amerika y'Amajyaruguru zagabanije umusaruro, hamwe na toni 304.000 zo kugabanya umusaruro.Ibishoboka byo kongera umusaruro ntibizakurwaho mugihe cyanyuma.
Byongeye kandi, ubushyuhe bw’uyu mwaka n’amapfa nabyo byateje ikibazo gikomeye ku miterere y’ingufu z’Uburayi.Urwego rwamazi yinzuzi nyinshi zi Burayi zaragabanutse cyane, ibyo bikaba byaragize ingaruka zikomeye kumikorere y’amashanyarazi.Byongeye kandi, kubura amazi bigira ingaruka no ku gukonjesha amashanyarazi y’ingufu za kirimbuzi, kandi umwuka ushyushye kandi ugabanya ingufu z’umuyaga, bigatuma bigora inganda za nucleaire na turbine z’umuyaga gukora.Ibi byongereye icyuho cyo gutanga amashanyarazi mu Burayi, ibyo bikaba byaratumye ihagarikwa ry’inganda nyinshi zikoresha ingufu.Urebye intege nke z’ingufu z’uburayi ziriho ubu, twizera ko igipimo cy’igabanuka ry’ibicuruzwa bya aluminiyumu y’iburayi bizagenda byiyongera muri uyu mwaka.
Dushubije amaso inyuma ku mpinduka z’ubushobozi bw’umusaruro mu Burayi, kuva ikibazo cy’amafaranga cyabaye mu 2008, igabanuka ry’umusaruro mu Burayi usibye Uburusiya ryarenze toni miliyoni 1.5 (usibye kugabanya umusaruro mu kibazo cy’ingufu za 2021).Hariho ibintu byinshi byo kugabanya umusaruro, ariko mu isesengura rya nyuma ni ikibazo cy’ibiciro: urugero, nyuma y’ikibazo cy’amafaranga cyatangiye mu 2008, igiciro cya aluminium electrolytike mu Burayi cyagabanutse munsi y’umurongo w’ibiciro, bituma a kugabanya umusaruro munini mu burayi bwa electrolytike ya aluminium;Iperereza ry’ibiciro by’amashanyarazi rirwanya inkunga ryabereye mu Bwongereza no mu tundi turere, ibyo bigatuma ibiciro by’amashanyarazi byiyongera ndetse n’umusaruro w’inganda za aluminiyumu zaho ugabanuka.Guverinoma y'Ubwongereza irateganya kandi gutangira mu 2013, isaba amashanyarazi kugira ngo yishyure ibirenze ibyoherezwa mu kirere.Izi ngamba zongereye igiciro cyo gukoresha amashanyarazi mu Burayi, bivamo amashanyarazi menshialuminium abatanga umwirondoro ibyo byahagaritse umusaruro mubyiciro byambere kandi ntibyigeze bisubukura umusaruro.
Kuva ikibazo cy’ingufu cyatangira mu Burayi umwaka ushize, ibiciro by’amashanyarazi byakomeje kuba byinshi.Kubera amakimbirane ya Ukraine n'Uburusiya hamwe n'ikirere gikabije, igiciro cya gaze gasanzwe n'amashanyarazi mu Burayi bigeze ku rwego rwo hejuru.Niba ibiciro by'amashanyarazi byaho bibarwa kuri euro 650 kuri MWh, buri kilowatt-isaha y'amashanyarazi ahwanye na 4.5 / kW · h.Ingufu zikoreshwa kuri toni yumuriro wa aluminium electrolytike i Burayi ni 15.500 kWt.Ukurikije iyi mibare, ikiguzi cy'umusaruro kuri toni ya aluminiyumu hafi 70.000 yu toni.Ibihingwa bya aluminiyumu bidafite ibiciro by'amashanyarazi by'igihe kirekire ntibishobora kubigura na gato, kandi iterabwoba ryo kugabanya umusaruro wa aluminium electrolytike rikomeje kwiyongera.Kuva mu 2021, ingufu za aluminiyumu ya electrolytike mu Burayi yagabanutseho toni miliyoni 1.326.Turagereranya ko nyuma yo kwinjira mu gihe cyizuba, ikibazo cy’ibura ry’ingufu mu Burayi ntigishobora gukemurwa neza, kandi hakaba hashobora kubaho kugabanuka kw’umusaruro wa aluminium electrolytike.toni cyangwa ibindi.Urebye uburyo bworoshye bwo gutanga ibicuruzwa mu Burayi, bizagorana gukira igihe kirekire nyuma yo kugabanuka k'umusaruro.
Ibiranga ingufu biragaragara, kandi ibyoherezwa mu mahanga bifite inyungu nziza
Isoko muri rusange ryizera ko ibyuma bidafite fer bifite imiterere ikomeye yubukungu hiyongereyeho ibicuruzwa.Twizera ko aluminiyumu itandukanye nibindi byuma kandi ifite imbaraga zikomeye, zikunze kwirengagizwa nisoko.Bifata 13.500 kW h kugirango ubyare toni imwe ya aluminium electrolytike, ikoresha amashanyarazi menshi kuri toni mubyuma byose bidafite fer.Byongeye kandi, amashanyarazi yacyo agera kuri 34% -40% yikiguzi cyose, bityo nanone yitwa "amashanyarazi akomeye".1 kWt y'amashanyarazi igomba gukoresha garama 400 z'amakara asanzwe ugereranije, kandi umusaruro wa toni 1 ya aluminium electrolytike ukenera gukoresha ikigereranyo cya toni 5-5.5 z'amakara.Igiciro cyamakara mu mashanyarazi yo mu gihugu agera kuri 70-75% yikiguzi cyo gutanga amashanyarazi.Mbere yuko ibiciro bitagenzurwa, ibiciro byigihe kizaza hamwe n’ibiciro bya aluminium ya Shanghai byerekanaga isano iri hejuru.
Kugeza ubu, kubera itangwa rihamye no kugenzura politiki, igiciro cy’amakara y’imbere mu gihugu gifite itandukaniro rikomeye ry’ibiciro hamwe n’igiciro cy’ibicuruzwa bikoreshwa mu mahanga.FOB igiciro cya 6000 kcal NAR yamakara yubushyuhe i Newcastle, Ositaraliya ni US $ 438.4 / toni, igiciro cya FOB cyamakara yumuriro muri Porto Bolivar, Kolombiya ni US $ 360 / toni, naho igiciro cyamakara yumuriro ku cyambu cya Qinhuangdao ni US $ 190.54 / toni , igiciro cya FOB cyamakara yubushyuhe ku cyambu cya Balitiki y’Uburusiya (Baltique) ni 110 US $ / toni, naho FOB igiciro cya 6000 kcal NAR amakara y’amashyanyarazi mu burasirazuba bwa kure (Vostochny) ni 158.5 US $ / toni.Agace gahendutse hanze yakarere kari hejuru cyane ugereranije nimbere mu gihugu.Ibiciro bya gaze bisanzwe muburayi no muri Amerika birenze ibiciro byingufu zamakara.Kubera iyo mpamvu, aluminium ya electrolytike yo mu gihugu ifite inyungu zikomeye z’igiciro cy’ingufu, izakomeza kugaragara mu rwego rw’ibiciro biri hejuru by’ingufu ku isi.
Bitewe n’itandukaniro rinini ku bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga ku bicuruzwa bitandukanye bya aluminiyumu mu Bushinwa, inyungu y’ibiciro bya aluminiyumu ntabwo igaragara mu buryo bwo kohereza ibicuruzwa hanze, ariko bigaragarira mu nzira ikurikira ya aluminium.Ku bijyanye n’amakuru yihariye, Ubushinwa bwohereje toni 652.100 z’ibicuruzwa bya aluminiyumu na aluminiyumu bidakozwe muri Nyakanga 2022, umwaka ushize byiyongera 39.1%;ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga kuva Mutarama kugeza Nyakanga byari toni miliyoni 4.1606, umwaka ushize wiyongereyeho 34.9%.Mugihe hatabayeho impinduka zikomeye mubisabwa hanze, biteganijwe ko ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga bizakomeza kuba hejuru.
Ibiryo birashobora kwihanganira gato, zahabu, icyenda ifeza na icumi birashobora gutegurwa
Kuva muri Nyakanga kugeza Kanama uyu mwaka, ibicuruzwa gakondo bitari ibihe byahuye nikirere gikabije.Sichuan, Chongqing, Anhui, Jiangsu n'utundi turere bahuye n’ingufu n’umusaruro, bituma inganda zihagarara ahantu henshi, ariko gukoresha ntabwo ari bibi cyane bivuye mu makuru.Mbere ya byose, ukurikije igipimo cy’ibikorwa by’inganda zitunganya ibicuruzwa byo hasi, byari 66.5% mu ntangiriro za Nyakanga na 65.4% mu mpera za Kanama, byagabanutseho amanota 1.1%.Igipimo cyo gukora cyagabanutseho 3,6 ku ijana mugihe kimwe cyumwaka ushize.Urebye urwego rwibarura, toni 4000 zonyine za aluminiyumu zabitswe muri Kanama yose, kandi toni 52.000 zari zikibikwa muri Nyakanga-Kanama.Muri Kanama, ububiko bwakusanyirijwe mu nkoni ya aluminiyumu bwari toni 2.600, naho kuva muri Nyakanga kugeza Kanama, ububiko bwa aluminiyumu bwari toni 11.300.Kubera iyo mpamvu, kuva muri Nyakanga kugeza Kanama, leta yasenyutse yarakomeje muri rusange, kandi muri toni 6,600 gusa ni zo zegeranijwe muri Kanama, ibyo bikaba byerekana ko ibicuruzwa biriho bigifite imbaraga nyinshi.Duhereye kuri terefone, iterambere ryimodoka nshya ningufu zitanga umuyaga nizuba bikomeza, kandi gukurura aluminiyumu bizaba umwaka wose.Muri rusange kugabanuka kumitungo itimukanwa ntabwo byahindutse.Kugabanuka k'ubushyuhe bwo hejuru bizafasha ahazubakwa gusubukura imirimo, kandi gutangiza ikigega cy’ubutabazi cya miliyari 200 “inyubako yemewe” nacyo kizafasha kunoza ihuriro.Kubwibyo, twizera ko igihe cyiza cyo gukoresha "Zahabu Nine Ifeza Icumi" kiracyateganijwe.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nzeri-09-2022